Palestine at the UN, the Showdown Approaches

Lately everyone is talking about the Palestinian bid for statehood at the United Nations. Though I have not written on my blog for some time, I find myself urged (by someone wise J ) to write some thoughts down and try to unpack a few of the dynamics happening in this move by Mahmoud Abbas’s government. I hope it may be useful to a few people who may be trying to understand the flurry of opinions surrounding the UN bid. In the process I also want to share a few articles that I have found interesting.

First of all, it is important to state what goals the Palestinians’ likely have in mind as they pursue this bid – one of which is not the reality of full UN state membership (they know this is an impossibility with the U.S. on the Security Council). What they gain from all this drama is leverage. Clout, moxie, confidence, a stage. That is what they may achieve if they ‘win’ at the UN in the coming weeks. See Professor Juan Cole’s article: “Palestinians’ Seek UN Moxie.” It is the dramatic stage of the United Nations, the international public eye and the media. If the Palestinians succeed in getting a majority of 9 votes on the 15 member Security Council; there is a real possibility that the United States will be forced to single-handedly veto their chance for full membership. It is telling that this vote is splitting British politics, and France has actively considered supporting it, effectively splitting the previously solid Western support for Israel. In the General Assembly votes, it seems the European Union is scrambling to present a united opinion on the matter. Public opinion may have some governments in Europe worried - a recent BBC poll claims over 50% of citizens in France, the UK and Germany support the Palestinian bid for statehood. There are also strong voices pushing Europe to vote "yes" and keep the two-state solution "alive" (see this excellent opinion piece "10 Reasons for a European 'Yes'" by Javier Solana and Martti Ahtisaari).

At the moment, talk is (see David Bosco’s update at Foreign Policy) that the Palestinians have already secured 7 votes (China, Russia, Brazil, India, South Africa, Lebanon), with 2-5 more possible (Portugal, Gabon, Nigeria, France, UK). A couple of these are probable supporters (Nigeria, Portugal) and France’s move will likely influence Gabon’s. The United States is the only member on the Security Council that is a definite no. If the Palestinians get 9 yes votes, they force the U.S. to stand alone as a sole destroyer of Palestinian statehood. This makes the United States look very, very bad, and certainly damages its claim as a neutral negotiator. It also puts the U.S. in an awkward position vis a vis its wish to befriend newfound Arab democracies in the Middle East; and its claim as a supporter of self-determination in a newfound atmosphere of optimism in the region.

Beyond the Security Council, the Palestinians do have the votes to gain non-member status at the UN through the General Assembly. This, done after the U.S. prevents Palestine’s full membership through the Security Council, will demonstrate the extent of worldwide support for the Palestinian cause. Gaining non-membership status will also give ‘Palestine’ access to the International Court of Justice, the World Health Organization, and many other international bodies from which it has previously been barred. Access to the ICJ and the ICC means Palestine can bring war crimes and other breaches of international law by Israel to the court ; bringing a world stage and loads of legal hassle for the Israelis to deal with. I’ve even heard it suggested (in this article in Egypt's Daily News) that Palestine could invoke the Uniting for Peace resolution; used previously in 1981 by the GeneralAssembly 8th Emergency Session to invoke sanctions against South Africa (over the heads of the Security Council who vetoed the measure). The sheer possibility of this threat is a huge leap forward in Palestinian leverage over the peace process.

I, for one, think this move is perfectly rational of the Palestinians. Why NOT go to the UN? Negotiations have failed once again, most recently because of Netanyahu’s refusal to freeze settlement construction as a pretext for talks. Obama himself has little/no power over Israeli internal politics. Avigdor Leiberman, Netanyahu’s foreign minister, has pushed Israel’s government away from negotiations and (I believe) away from rational foreign policy. Though some deride Abbas’s UN bid as a legacy-seeking ploy and an empty gesture, I think it is far more than that. It is a gesture to be sure, but not at all empty.

This bid is Palestine showing its hand. It is a new world where people around the globe are connected to online news, friendships and opinions. A new atmosphere has rocked the Middle East out of stagnation, and regional economic powers like China, Brazil, India and South Africa are increasingly willing to tout their strength in the face of Western powers. Palestine knows this, and their strength in this ‘new world’ is what they are attempting to prove right now. 

I also wonder if secretly, some in the Obama Administration may be welcoming this move from the Palestinians. Though sticking to the public show of support for Israel and promising to veto the SC bid, this takes the pressure off of the U.S. to force Israel back to the negotiating table. It may be that Abbas will provide enough pressure on his own to get Israel to start up again. On the other hand, I am also sure there are some in the Obama Administration who believe this Palestinian move will scuttle negotiations for some time; this may also be true. It depends on the Israelis and what they offer as a starting line for negotiations in secret. It also depends on how strong the Palestinian hand at the UN turns out to be, and how they choose to use their newfound leverage in the international arena. It makes the United States look weak, but then again, that already happened when Obama's efforts to force Netanyahu to freeze settlements utterly failed. Perhaps the U.S. should contemplate a new era of its own incompetence at managing this process. It goes in hand with the Arab Spring, which largely (barring Libya) moved of its own accord without American interference. It might be an entirely new era, and one where the U.S. is much less important and less able to dictate policies to Middle Eastern leaders. So I say, in the spirit of the Arab Spring, let's see what momentum the Palestinians can muster on their own.